As The Gambia approaches another decisive election year, it is necessary to separate political reality from manufactured illusion. Unfortunately, much of what is being presented by segments of the opposition and their online cheerleaders belongs firmly in the latter category.
A growing number of opposition supporters have convinced themselves that social media noise and selective “surveys” are substitutes for political organisation, national presence, and electoral credibility. They are not. Elections are not won on Facebook timelines, WhatsApp groups, or Twitter spaces. They are won on the ground—through structures, consistency, unity, and delivery.
Electoral history is instructive. Parties such as Sobeyaa, UMC, and PDOIS have repeatedly failed to break beyond marginal percentages nationwide. This is not insult; it is record. Outside the Kombos, many of these parties lack visible, functional structures and cannot demonstrate sustained grassroots support across all six administrative regions. Press statements and online activism cannot replace political machinery.
It is also important to clarify a common deception: signatures collected for party registration do not equate to voter loyalty. The Gambian electorate understands the difference between administrative compliance and political commitment. No one is fooled.
More telling, however, is the state of the so-called “main opposition.” The UDP is currently experiencing one of the most difficult periods in its history. Since the selection of Ousainou Darboe as flagbearer, the party has not consolidated; it has fractured. Two prominent figures exited and formed separate political movements. Their support bases did not vanish—they dispersed, with many supporters quietly relocating to the National People’s Party (NPP).
The consequences are visible and damaging:
Open hostility between former UDP allies on social media
Persistent factionalism among those who remained and those who left.
A recent nationally televised war of words between two Members of Parliament who were once UDP colleagues, now divided after one departed with the party’s former political favourite to establish a new movement.
This is not a picture of readiness. It is a picture of disunity and internal collapse.
A fragmented opposition cannot plausibly present itself as a credible alternative government. If a party cannot manage its own internal contradictions, how does it propose to govern a diverse nation?
There is also a moral contradiction that deserves mention. During the darkest years of dictatorship—when dissent was dangerous, rights were suppressed, and fear dominated public life—many of today’s loudest critics were conspicuously silent. Now, in an environment of freedom and constitutional protection, they present themselves as fearless champions. Courage exercised only after danger has passed is not leadership.
The irony is that the very freedom enabling today’s criticism exists because this country moved away from dictatorship. Under authoritarian rule, such public attacks would have been unthinkable.
Meanwhile, voters are not blind. They see tangible outcomes:
Nationwide infrastructural development
Rural electrification reaching towns, villages, and hamlets
Expanded agricultural support
Improved access to education
Protection of human rights and social justice
An open democratic space that tolerates dissent
Even opposition-celebrated data such as the CePRASS report does not demonstrate opposition strength; it reveals fragmentation. Preferences are scattered, leadership is contested, and coordination is absent. Undecided voters are not rejecting the ruling party in favour of the opposition—they are withholding judgment, waiting for seriousness, unity, and clarity.
The National People’s Party will not allow political fantasy to dominate national discourse. We will engage, respond, and confront misinformation directly—platform for platform, record against record.
This election will not be decided by hashtags or manufactured outrage.
It will be decided by credibility, unity, and delivery.
On those measures, the contrast is clear.
Yaya Dampha
NPP Diaspora Coordinator – Sweden
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