By Yaya Dampha,
NPP Diaspora Coordinator
Lamin J. Darboe, like any political actor, is entitled to optimism. However, optimism must be anchored in political reality. Elections are not won through wishful thinking, social media enthusiasm, or carefully staged television interviews on platforms such as Kerr Fatou. They are won through deep-rooted party structures, tested grassroots support, nationwide presence, and proven leadership—elements that cannot be improvised a few months before a presidential election.
The suggestion that a loose coalition of three to five political groups—most of which secured less than three percent in previous elections, while others are not even legally registered political parties—can defeat the ruling National People’s Party is not strategic analysis. It is political illusion.
Politics in The Gambia is not conducted on social media timelines. It is built village by village, ward by ward, and region by region—from Basse to Banjul, from the provinces to the Greater Banjul Area. Any political organization that lacks functional structures beyond the immediate circle of its leadership cannot suddenly claim national relevance simply because an election is approaching.
There is a fundamental difference between inheriting a party label and building a genuine support base. A skeleton organization—without branches, coordinators, youth and women’s wings, or sustained engagement with communities—cannot transform itself into a viable national force by merely announcing a coalition.
Performance, Not Speculation, Shapes Electoral Outcomes
Unlike speculative alliances, President Adama Barrow and the National People’s Party stand on a clear record of delivery. That record includes:
Nationwide road infrastructure connecting previously neglected communities
Expanded access to electricity and clean water
Improved healthcare and education facilities
Greater macroeconomic stability despite challenging global conditions
Most importantly, peace, stability, and democratic openness unparalleled in recent Gambian history.
Gambians do not need lectures on what development means—they are experiencing it firsthand. They understand peace because they enjoy it daily. They value democracy because they practice it freely, without fear, intimidation, or repression.
For this reason, confidence in President Barrow’s prospects is not arrogance; it is confidence grounded in performance, national acceptance, and political maturity.
2016 Was an Exception, Not a Blueprint
It is also important to confront a persistent misconception: the belief that the conditions of 2016 can simply be recreated.
The Gambia of 2016 and the Gambia of 2026 are fundamentally different—politically, institutionally, and socially. In 2016, Gambians were united by a single, overriding objective: ending authoritarian rule. That election was a rescue mission, not a conventional democratic contest. The coalition of that era was driven by necessity and survival, not by strong party institutions or ideological coherence.
Today, there is no dictatorship to dismantle, no climate of fear, no closed political space. What exists instead is constitutional order, political freedom, and competitive democracy. The emotional and political momentum that defined 2016 does not exist in 2026.
To assume otherwise is to misunderstand history—or to deliberately ignore it.
Coalitions formed out of desperation, composed of parties with minimal grassroots presence and limited electoral credibility, cannot rely on the memory of 2016 to substitute for organization, credibility, and public trust.
Conclusion
Elections are not won by arithmetic coalitions or media soundbites. They are won by people, performance, and presence. The December election will be decided by peace, progress, and proven leadership—and on all these fronts, President Adama Barrow and the National People’s Party remain well ahead.
Dreams are free. Elections, however, must be earned.
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