Weeks and days leading towards the by-elections in Niamina and Kerr Jarga, most social media political pundits were conclusive that an inevitable victory was GDC’s resting the logic and reasoning on the constituents been “GDC strong bases”. Others even ran to the marketplace merchandising incumbency as irrelevant due to “time has changed” in new Gambia and we are no longer in a dictatorship. Absolutely, President Barrow is not a dictator.

Realistically, the results projected such political pundits as lesser political prophets will little mastery of political pollstery. To downplay the new political narrative factored by the results for NPP a party yet to be inaugurated smashing an established contender on its strongest base supported by the biggest political party would jolt any matured and seasoned political pundit. Naturally, most fallen heroes from grace to amazing disgrace fish for reasons to justify their fall hence the references to “use of state resources and civil servants” by NPP in securing its resounding double victories. To those people I wish them good luck in their crusade to understand politics particularly African countries. At least one thing which has not surfaced in all the commentaries dissecting how NPP snatched the must-win by-elections from GDC supported by UDP is the ethnocentic card. In fact, it is refreshing to accentuate it was observed in some quarters, most of the current political parties, it is only NPP which is yet to be packed on a tribal box. For instance tagging it as either a wolof, mandinka or fula party. Jesus is lord.

The fundamental question is how did NPP leveled GDC and UDP flat on their faces in the Niamina and Kerr Jarga by-elections? Owlishly, it will be contended that oh no it was not a contest between UDP and NPP. Safe your breathe. Assuming NPP lost miserably, what would have been the narrative? To comprehend what factored NPP’s double victory one must put our political demography under a microscope. Albeit some political scholars have attempted to demarcate a boundary between rural and urban constituents voting pattern, it remains true that African politics is largely desks on ethno politics, incumbency, politics of individual and patronage.

From the moment, the Niamina seat became vacant due to the untimely demise of its sitting MP, NPP sets it eyes on the seat. NPP been alert to the proverbial of election is not won on election day, began marshalling support through its political entrepreneurs who know the inside out of the constituency. In a nutshell, NPP employed a people approach style to resonate with the people of Niamina and it paid dividends. Most importantly, the primary to select candidate was conducted in such a way that those who lost did not perceive it as a rejection from the party. They stayed and equally contributed to the winning of the seat as opposed to one of the GDC primary contender who migrated with his supporters to NPP. Another element of the people centred approach was resonating the people’s needs and the presence of means to realised those needs. Here, the incumbency comes to play a pivotal role. Generally, most electorates tend to lean towards the believe that it is only a party of a sitting government that can uplift their livelihoods by ushering in development such as road networks, water and electricity. As such, they readily galvanise support for the incumbency instead of the opposition often viewed as co-hustlers. What became apparent during the entire campaign period was electorates repeated call for development projects. The Barrow government has been spreading road network projects across the length and breadth of the Gambia. So it was not difficult for the NPP to cite such to reinforce their promises on delivering such demands from the electorates. Fortunately, the ethno political card never became a necessity during the campaign.

Psychologically, the NPP had established itself as a political entity to be reckoned with and if it maintains the momentum, further augments its strategy, fulfills it campaign promises, seen in leading the fight against corruption 2021 presidential election will be another joyous victory for NPP and Barrow.

Sulayman Jeng
UK